Peoria, Ill (WMBD) — After a quiet weekend the weather pattern is turning active again as two storm systems are set to impact Central Illinois bringing rain, storms, and perhaps and little snow.
- Sunday night – Monday (Storm One)
- Rain develops Sunday night and continues through Monday morning
- Slight chance of strong to severe storms 3pm – 7pm Monday (Low Confidence)
- Wednesday – Thursday (Storm Two)
- Mostly rain for Peoria & Bloomington
- Transition from rain to snow possible Wednesday night & Thursday
- Some accumulation possible north of a Macomb to Pontiac line
Rain will gradually spread across Central Illinois Sunday night and become likely after 3am. Rain and isolated storms will be possible throughout the morning, decreasing in coverage through noon. Depending on how well the atmosphere recovers in the wake of the morning rain, a second line of showers and storms may develop after 3am and pose a conditional risk of severe weather.
In order for severe storms to develop a couple of things need to happen
1. Dew points need to reach the low to mid 50s
2. Enough clearing behind the morning rain for temperatures to reach the mid to upper 50s
Both things are highly uncertain at this point, and we may not know what’s going to happen until after the rain stops Monday morning/early afternoon. Should storms develop they may produce isolated tornadoes, nickel size hail and winds up to 55 mph. This is a very fluid situation so be sure to monitor the forecast for additional updates.
Regardless of any strong to severe storms rainfall amounts will generally around 0.25″ with locally higher amounts possible where thunderstorms occur.
Storm System Two
As the first storm departs Central Illinois Monday another system will be moving across the Rocky Mountains and should begin to impact Central Illinois Wednesday afternoon. The low pressure center of the storm is expected to develop in southeast Colorado Tuesday evening then swing through southern Illinois Wednesday evening. The track of this storm is further south than the one earlier in the week which gives part of the area a better chance of seeing at least some snow.
As of now, rain is expected to be the primary precipitation type for Peoria and Bloomington, but there’s a potential for accumulating snow north of a Macomb to Pontiac line. Rain is likely to fall over much of the area Wednesday afternoon and night with rain occasionally mixing with snow Wednesday night and Thursday, particularly northwest of the Illinois River.
As of now we do not expect this system to evolve into a major winter storm for Central Illinois, but travel could become difficult across northern Illinois and Iowa. Any subtle shift in storm track to the north or south will have big implications on how this system plays out.
This second system is also expected to have a lot more moisture with it and could bring greater concerns of heavy rain. However, it appears the deeper moisture may be blocked from getting this far north thanks to thunderstorms across the southern Mississippi River. At this time, additional rainfall amounts around 0.50″ are expected across Central Illinois.