Heavy Rain/Strong Storm to Target Central Illinois Sunday into Monday

Weather Blog

Peoria, Ill. (WMBD) – A powerful storm system will bring heavy rain and stronger storms to Illinois Sunday into Monday. Several inches of rain are expected and could lead to flash flooding in parts of Central Illinois by Sunday afternoon and evening.

Key Takeaways

  • Multiple rounds of heavy rain and storms
  • Widespread 2-3 inches of rain expected, localized amounts over 4 inches possible
  • Flooding and flash flooding possible
  • Strong to severe storms possible, higher chances south
Simulated cloud cover and radar Sunday

The weekend will start off dry with seasonal temperatures and partly cloudy skies on Saturday. Rain will begin to develop late Saturday night and becoming likely shortly after sunrise Sunday. Multiple rounds of heavy rain are expected throughout the day on Sunday with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. Rainfall rates will likely exceed 1 inch an hour at times, especially between 3 pm Sunday and 12 am Monday.

After midnight, the risk of heavy rain will decrease but scattered rain showers will continue. Showers will remain possible through mid-morning before the system pulls away and the rain ends from west to east across the region.

Severe Storm Potential

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Central Illinois within a Level 2 Risk (Slight Risk) for severe storms Sunday afternoon and evening. The greatest risk for severe storms is further south in Missouri and southern Illinois where SPC has issued a Level 3 Risk (Enhanced Risk).

This storm system has the makings of a significant severe weather event with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes (potentially strong) possible. While a few strong to severe storms are possible locally the greatest severe weather threat, particularly the tornado threat, is south of I-72.

How far north this threat exist will depend on the placement of the warm front Sunday evening, which remains unclear as of this writing. If the warm front can make it to I-74, the risk of tornadoes in our local area could increase. As of now we anticipate that front will be somewhere near I-72 by early Sunday evening. This would leave us on the cold side of the front and would eliminated the risk of tornadoes. However, elevated thunderstorms north of the warm front that could still produce large hail, very heavy rain and gusty winds.

You can see the potential for supercells with our simulated Future Storm Rotation model. You’ll notice how most of the rotating updrafts remain closer to and south of I-72 and across Central Missouri. The storm tracks moving into parts of local area represent the storms that could carry a risk of hail and gusty winds.

Future Storm Rotation

Rainfall Forecast

Most of Central Illinois is expected to receive at least 2-4 inches of rain from Saturday night through Monday with the heaviest rain falling between 6 am Sunday and 12 am Monday. Training thunderstorms with rainfall rates exceeding 1 inch an hour will likely lead to localized areas receiving more than 4 inches of rain. This heavy rain will likely lead to flash flooding and urban flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a “Slight Risk” for flash flooding through Sunday night.

While there’s not much you can do to prevent flash flooding, you can help prevent flooding on your street and in your community by raking up loose leaves and yard debris that could end up clogging storm drains. Using the nice weather on Saturday to do this could save you and your neighbors some headaches Sunday night.

Be sure to remain weather aware and monitor the forecast throughout the weekend. Make sure your weather radios are on and working and download the CiProud 2 Go Weather App to remain informed.

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