Peoria, Ill. – The Climate Prediction Center released its first outlook for July on Thursday. I’ll give you two chances to guess what that outlook says but you’ll only need one.
According to the Midwestern Regional Climate Center the start of 2019 has been the wettest start to a year on record, since 1895. Through the month of May, the statewide average precipitation was at 23.05″ which is 7.59″ above average.
Persistent troughing in the west and ridging across the southeast has allowed tropical moisture from the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico to continuously flow across the Central Plains and the Midwest resulting in above average precipitation across much of the U.S.
The Climate Prediction Center gives Central Illinois a higher chance of seeing above average precipitation and below average temperatures. The temperature forecast is largely based on the very high soil moisture across the Central Plains and the Midwest. To keep this simple, the more moisture in the air, the cooler it will be. With the above average rainfall seen across the plains this year, it’s likely this will continue to contribute to below average temperatures in the weeks and months to come.
Some long range models suggest that we could see a pattern change at the start of the month where ridging builds in the west and a trough dips in the east. This may give us a break from the steady stream of tropical moisture we’ve seen over the last few months. This should keep the better chances of above average precip west of the region.