The continental U.S. experienced the 13th coldest April on record and the coldest since 1997. The Central Plains and the Midwest experienced some of the coldest weather with Illinois seeing it's second coldest April on record while it was the 6th coldest for Peoria.
Now, things have changed! The start of May has been very warm and very dry for much of the state. While drought conditions don't currently exist across the region, it has been abnormally dry. The forecast calls for a few more chances of storms through May 14th, but the exact locations of where the most beneficial rain will fall will depend on the position of a stationary front that will bounce between northern and Central Illinois. While there are uncertainties in the position of the front remains uncertain, areas north of I-74 are favored to see some of the heaviest rain.
Stormier Times Ahead!
Longe range model forecast and from the Climate Prediction Center indicate that Central Illinois could finally receive some much-needed moisture in the next two weeks. The 6 to10 day outlook which runs from May 15th through May 19th calls for above average rainfall and above average temperatures.
Thanks to unseasonably warm conditions and a steady flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, the stage will be set for the region to see some rain. However, storm chances will highly depend on the placement of a frontal boundary that will drift north and south across the state.
With the increased storm chances will ultimately come an increased chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. While there are no severe weather outbreaks expected in the foreseeable future, a more organized threat of severe weather could develop if the jet stream begins to drop south through the Midwest.