Peoria, Ill. (WMBD) — After a few cool dry and comfortable days the weather pattern will become more active through end of the work week before we dry out for Memorial Day Weekend. A few storms Wednesday could become strong to severe.

Key Takeaways

  • Severe storms possible between 2 pm and 10 pm
  • Storm Threats:
    • A few tornadoes
    • Wind gusts up to 60 mph
    • Hail up to 1.0″ in diameter
  • Rain expected to linger through Thursday night, possibly Friday

Tuesday night – Wednesday

A slow moving storm system is expected to pinwheel multiple rounds of showers and storms to Central Illinois through Thursday night, and possibly, into Friday. A warm front will trigger the first round of showers across the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Once the front lifts north of the area, temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s with dew points surging into the mid to upper 60s. This will once again make it uncomfortably humid Wednesday afternoon.

The warmer temperatures and higher dew points should contribute to moderate instability across the region by early afternoon creating a conditional threat for strong to severe storms. Whether or not severe storms develop will depend on how fast we destabilize in the wake of the morning showers and storms. Any breaks in the clouds Wednesday afternoon will lead to more instability and a greater risk of severe storms while more cloud cover and rain will limit the risk of severe storms.

Should severe storms develop, they would be most likely between 2 pm and 10 pm, region wide, with multiple rounds of storms possible. The amount of wind shear over the region would support the formation of supercells (rotating thunderstorms) capable of producing damaging winds up to 60 mph, hail up to the size of quarters, and even a few tornadoes. The threat of severe storms will decrease after sunset as instability wanes, but a few gusty storms will be possible through 10 pm.

Model forecast of showers and storms Wednesday

Thursday

The slow moving storm system will continue to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to Central Illinois. The risk of severe weather is expected to shift east into Indiana, though a few cold air funnel clouds will be possible given the location of the upper level low. If the storm slows and instability increases, the risk of severe storms in our area could increase. Scattered rain showers will continue to fall across the region off and on Thursday night before coming to an end late Thursday night or early Friday morning.

Rainfall Forecast

As is typical with thunderstorms rainfall amounts will be highly variable and very dependent on where storms track but most of Central Illinois is expected to see 0.50″ to 1.00″ of rain with isolated instances of higher rain totals possible.