Tracking Cristobal – Rain, wind & tornadoes possible Tuesday

Weather Blog

Peoria, Ill. (WMBD) – Remnants of now Tropical Depression Cristobal will move through Central Illinois on Tuesday bringing wind, rain and perhaps a few tornadoes along with it.

Storm Impacts

  • Widespread wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph likely, stronger gusts in showers & storms
  • Scattered brief tornadoes possible
  • Localized downpours, heaviest rain remains west

We will see a unique situation where the remnant low of a tropical system strengthens as it interacts with the jet stream and an approaching storm from the west. The deepening low pressure could bring near record low pressure readings for the month of June to Central Illinois and will result in an unseasonably strong wind event for the region. As the center of the low passes to our west winds will occasionally gust between 35 and 50 mph, the strongest winds blowing along and east of the Illinois River.

Severe Weather Potential

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Central Illinois within a slight risk for severe weather. Damaging wind gusts over 60 mph and tornadoes will be the primary threats as the two storm systems work their way through the region. The window for severe weather is from 10 am Tuesday through 12 am Wednesday with multiple rounds of showers and storms.

Damaging Wind Threat
Winds will already be rather gusty as the system moves through, however any showers and storms may bring down stronger gusts over 60 mph down to the surface.

Tornado Threat
As arching bands of showers and storms lift north across the state, high wind shear could result in scattered but brief tornadoes throughout the region. This threat exists area wide but will start south of I-74 around 10 am.

Tuesday Evening
We should see a drop in shower and storm coverage by mid to late afternoon and remnants from Cristobal lift north of the region. However, a strengthening storm coming in from the west could bring another round of scattered severe storms to Central Illinois Tuesday evening between 5 pm and midnight.

The focus for these severe storms would be along and south of a warm front that will be lifting north across the region. Instability is expected to increase late Tuesday afternoon and evening providing these storms with more fuel. There is considerable uncertainty in the placement of these storms, but they could develop anywhere along and south of I-80. With ample shear in place, storms that develop may go on to produce damaging winds, tornadoes and perhaps some small hail.

A few showers will remain possible as the cold front and wrap around moisture move through the region. Winds will remain strong from the west with gusts between 25 and 45 mph expected. Storm total rainfall amounts will range from 0.50″ to 1.0″ region wide with higher amounts expected west of the Mississippi River.

Be sure to stay weather aware on Tuesday as conditions could change quickly. Monitor a NOAA Weather Radio and the CIProud 2 go Weather app for warnings and life saving alerts.

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